Petrol prices in Pakistan are expected to decline notably from October 16, 2025, with the price of petrol (PMG) projected to fall by Rs6.10 per litre, reflecting a 3.7% decrease, according to initial estimates based on ex-refinery and ex-depot data.
The latest working, prepared ahead of the fortnightly fuel price review, indicates that petrol may drop from Rs268.68 to Rs262.58 per litre, while high-speed diesel (HSD) is likely to see a marginal reduction of Rs0.97 per litre, bringing its price down from Rs276.81 to Rs275.84 per litre.
Similarly, kerosene oil (KERO) is projected to decrease by Rs2.75 per litre, settling at Rs182.22 per litre, and light diesel oil (LDO) may see a cut of Rs1.64 per litre to reach Rs163.86 per litre.
Breakdown of Ex-Refinery and Ex-Depot Price Adjustments
According to the analysis, the ex-refinery price of petrol is expected to fall from Rs162.96 to Rs156.86 per litre, while high-speed diesel could decrease from Rs174.28 to Rs173.31 per litre. The drop in ex-refinery rates reflects declining international crude oil prices and stable exchange rates during the current pricing cycle.
Kerosene’s ex-refinery rate is projected at Rs153.86 per litre, down Rs2.74, and LDO is expected at Rs142.06 per litre, down Rs1.64.
The decline in global oil prices, coupled with stable rupee-dollar parity, has contributed to the expected downward revision. The premium on petrol (PMG) currently stands at $6.62 per barrel, while diesel’s premium is around $3.20 per barrel.
Price Components and Market Indicators
The calculation also factors in:
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Petrol (PL + CSL) = Rs80.52/litre
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Diesel (PL + CSL) = Rs79.51/litre
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Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) = Rs8.69/litre for petrol, Rs6.19/litre for diesel
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No exchange rate adjustment recorded for this review period
Analysts said the drop in prices could bring relief to consumers struggling with inflation, particularly in the transport and logistics sectors. “The decline in ex-refinery rates is expected to ease pressure on domestic inflation and help stabilize fuel-linked costs,” said an energy market analyst.
The final fuel prices will be officially announced by the Ministry of Finance on October 15, following a review of global Platts data and exchange rates over the next two days.
