Staff Report
ISLAMABAD: In a major relief for the agriculture sector, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has revised the predicted water shortage for the ongoing Kharif season downward from 43 per cent to 27 per cent—thanks to improved river flows and rising temperatures in the northern catchments.
The development has prompted Irsa to increase water shares for Punjab and Sindh, raising hopes for timely sowing of major Kharif crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane.
The decision was taken during a recent meeting of the five-member Irsa body, which noted significant improvement in water storage and inflows. Irsa is also expected to convene a meeting of its advisory committee—the second in a month—to assess whether further increases in provincial allocations are possible.
Earlier, Irsa had taken a cautious approach, allocating water based on a worst-case shortage scenario amid unpredictable climate forecasts. As a result, provinces were initially given minimum water shares, sufficient primarily for drinking purposes, delaying crop sowing in some areas.
Sources said the recent spike in temperatures—rising to 19–20°C in Skardu and surrounding areas—has accelerated snowmelt, boosting river inflows. However, Irsa has warned of a possible dip in flows over the next week due to a fresh spell of rain and lower temperature forecasts.
Provincial Allocations Revised
Following the improved situation, Punjab’s water share has been increased from 41,000 to 64,800 cusecs, while Sindh’s allocation has gone up from 35,000 to 45,000 cusecs for the next 10 days. Shares for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remain unchanged at 1,900 and 500 cusecs respectively, as they are exempt from cutbacks.
Inflows at Tarbela Dam surged to 52,000 cusecs on Sunday, up from 22,000 cusecs at the start of April, while storage improved to 0.435 million acre feet (MAF), with water levels rising to 1,427 feet from 1,404 feet.
Mangla Dam also saw an increase in inflows to 42,000 cusecs from 27,000 cusecs earlier this month, with water storage rising to 0.657 MAF and the reservoir level improving to 1,118 feet.
Total inflows at rim stations reached 148,000 cusecs on Sunday, up from 93,000 cusecs on April 1, while total outflows rose to 99,000 cusecs from 73,000 cusecs. The overall live storage in the system now stands at 1.293 MAF—compared to zero at the start of the season.
Cautious Planning Amid Climate Uncertainty
Sources said the decision to start the season with conservative estimates helped avoid disruption to crops later. “In unpredictable weather conditions, it’s safer to begin with lower discharges and gradually scale up as sowing picks up, rather than reducing flows mid-season,” a source noted.
Last month, Irsa’s advisory committee had warned of an unprecedented 43pc shortage for April due to lack of snow, low storage, and uncertain climate patterns. The Met Office had forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures for April to June, while winter snowfall in key catchments was 31pc below average.
With signs of recovery in river flows and dam storages, farmers and officials alike are now more optimistic about the prospects for the 2025 Kharif season.
